CREA Updates Resale Housing Market Forecast
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations – for the rest of 2019 and looking ahead to 2020.
Economic fundamentals underpinning housing activity remain strong outside of the Prairies and Newfoundland and Labrador. Population and employment growth have both remained supportive and the unemployment rate remains low. At the same time, expectations have become widespread that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rates over the rest of the year and into next.
More importantly for home buyers and housing markets, longer-term mortgage rates have been declining. Among those that have declined is the Bank of Canada’s benchmark five-year rate used by banks to qualify mortgage applicants.
Additionally, the Federal Government has recently launched its First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, a shared equity program in which the federal government finances a portion of a home purchase in exchange for an equity share of the home’s value.
Of these factors supporting Canadian housing activity, the decline in mortgage rates is arguably the most important development since the release in June of CREA’s most recent forecast. The decline in the benchmark five-year mortgage rate has marginally relaxed the B-20 mortgage stress-test, which has dampened housing activity more than other policy changes made in recent years.
Home sales have improved by more than expected in recent months and there are early signs that home price declines in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and across the Prairies may be abating. Meanwhile, home prices are re-accelerating across Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region.
Strong economic fundamentals, previously unexpected declines in mortgage interest rates and stronger than previously expected housing market trends in British Columbia and Ontario have resulted in CREA upwardly revising forecast home sales in 2019 and 2020. Nonetheless, the overall level of national sales activity this year and next is anticipated to remain below levels recorded prior to the implementation of the B-20 stress test.
National home sales are now projected to recover to 482,000 units in 2019, representing a 5% increase from the five-year low recorded in 2018. While this is an upward revision of 19,000 transactions compared to CREA’s previous forecast (85% of which is due to upgraded British Columbia and Ontario forecasts), it represents a return of activity to its 10-year annual average. It also remains well below the annual record set in 2016, when almost 540,000 homes traded hands. Notwithstanding the upward revision, the forecast for 2019 on a per capita basis remains the second weakest since 2001.
First-Time Home Buyer Incentive now available
The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive helps qualified first-time homebuyers reduce their monthly mortgage payments without adding to their financial burdens.
The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive is a shared-equity mortgage with the Government of Canada. It offers:
5% or 10% for a first-time buyer’s purchase of a newly constructed home
5% for a first-time buyer’s purchase of a resale (existing) home
5% for a first-time buyer’s purchase of a new or resale mobile/manufactured home
The Incentive’s shared-equity mortgage is one where the government has a shared investment in the home. As a result, the government shares in both the upside and downside of the property value.
By obtaining the Incentive, the borrower may not have to save as much of a down payment to be able to afford the payments associated with the mortgage. The effect of the larger down payment is a smaller mortgage, and, ultimately, lower monthly costs.
The homebuyer will still have to repay the Incentive based on the property’s fair market value at the time of repayment. If a homebuyer received a 5% Incentive, they would repay 5% of the home’s value at repayment. If a homebuyer received a 10% Incentive, they would repay 10% of the home’s value at repayment.
The homebuyer must repay the Incentive after 25 years, or when the property is sold, whichever comes first. The homebuyer can also repay the Incentive in full any time before, without a pre-payment penalty.
Ask me for more information.
Consumer Price Index climbs in July
In July, the consumer price index climbed 0.5% (not seasonally adjusted), three ticks higher than the median economist forecast. The rise left the year-on-year measure unchanged at 2.0%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the CPI was up 0.4% in the month on increases in recreation (+0.9%), transportation (+0.6%), and food (+0.3%), among others. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures on a year-on-year basis pegged in as follows: 2.1% for the CPI-trim, 2.1% for the CPI- median, and 1.9% for the CPI-common. The average of the three measures remained in line with the BoC’s midpoint target of 2.0%. It is worth noting that the momentum has been building of late. Our in-house replication of the CPI-trim and the CPI-median for the three months to July reached 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively, on an annualized basis. Whereas the Fed can point to soft annual inflation figures to justify rate cuts, the BoC is faced with a very different situation. What’s more, in a context marked by a tight labour market and a weak Canadian dollar, we cannot rule out stronger inflation down the road.
Home price deflation about to ebb in Western Canada?
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.4% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI has been depressed by Vancouver’s index loss of 6.2% during this period, corresponding to a 12-month string without a gain. Other Western metropolitan areas (Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg) also contributed to slow the national HPI. At the opposite, annual index growth has been decent in most of the six regions located in the central and eastern part of the country. The fact that the national HPI registered gains over the last three months does not mean that the market has turned the corner. Indeed, the three latest rises were weak compared to the 21-year average for those months. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in these months this year. That being said, the recent rebound in home sales across Canada was also felt in the Western part of the country. This should help limit home-price deflation in this region.
Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.
The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise.
Highlights:
On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton.
From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%).
Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
The 5 Long-term Implications of Renting vs. Owning
Trying to figure out if you should continue to rent or buy a home instead? We’ll show you what the long-term implications of renting vs. owning are so you can make a better-informed decision for your budget and lifestyle.
Renting Isn’t Always Better For Your Budget
Unless you can find a landlord who will keep your rental rate at the same price year to year, in the long term, you will end up spending more than someone with a mortgage. Why? Because you can get a fixed rate mortgage that locks you into a particular rate over time. With renting, most cities allow landlords to raise their rental rates every year based on the rent increase guidelines. Some areas even allow owners of newer buildings and condos to increase rent as they please. So one year you could be paying $1500 and the next $1800. Unless your rent is well below the average mortgage, buying is a better option.
Home Ownership Forces You To Save
Putting money into your mortgage each month forces you to save for your future instead of just spending it on material things. Unless you’re putting away money into investments that will yield a significant return when renting, you will have less at the end of the day when compared to an owner whose property, equity and value, appreciates over time while the mortgage decreases.
Owning Presents Secondary Income Options
Most landlords prohibit renting or subletting units without their approval. That means your dream of renting out your rental on Airbnb to make some extra money may be squashed. However, if you own your home, you can easily rent out any room in your house or even a basement apartment to make extra income.
Renting Offers Less Security
Renters always risk being evicted if the market rises quickly and the landlord wants to make more income, or if they suddenly decide to sell the home. When you own your home, you have complete security as long as you pay the mortgage.
Interest Rate Rises Could Prevent You From Buying
There’s a reason why many investors have moved fast to get into the rising Canadian markets. As interest rates rise it can be more difficult to qualify at higher interest rates and stress tests required. All you need is 5% saved plus closing costs to get you started into the housing market. Buying a home is not only finding a place to live but an investment in your personal wealth. Buying when rates are low helps you build equity faster.
If at any time you can afford to get into the market, you should always consider buying over renting.
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year.
Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market.
Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond.
Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canada’s target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Fed’s objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target.
Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China.
Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last.
Source: Scotiabank Economics